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2023-06-26 13:06:35

Narendra Modi’s US visit to define future roadmap

Jayanta Ghoshal

Narendra Modi’s US visit to define future roadmap

The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US has become talk of the town both in India and Bangladesh. Many people want to know whether discussions over Bangladesh were initiated or not in this visit. Did Naendra Modi tell Biden about anything related to US’s tough decisions and eccentric visa policy over Bangladesh? According to some authorities concerned, there’s no question of discussion over this matter. Some people think why Modi would talk to Biden about the matters of Bangladesh, while some others think there was details discussion about Bangladesh. Which was true?

I want to state humbly that when Rajib Gandhi was the Prime Minister of India, from then I was part of visit of Prime Minister of India. I went to the US as the visit-companion of Prime Ministers like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao, and Manmohon Singh. However, the current US visit of Narendra Modi is hugely different from the visits in the past.

The matter of diplomacy maintains an own continuity. That means the same tradition is on in the regimes of Bush, Clinton, Trump and Biden. Hence, there were ups and downs in the bilateral relations of US and India from the era of Neheru to Modi. However, there was the continuity of diplomatic matters all of the times. Now, at first we’ve to understand what to be discussed and how.

When Biden and Modi met, then it becomes a topic of talks even in the tea-stalls of the small towns. But, it’s not the gossiping sessions of the tea-stalls where Modi would tell Biden, “Hallo, Mr. Biden, what are you thinking about Bangladesh. Well, why did you say like this over the visa policy of Bangladesh? We don’t like it. Whatever you do, don’t be involved in any kind of activities regarding Bangladesh that harm India.’ And it’s not possible that Biden would pat the back of Nerendra Modi and say, “Why are you so worried about Bangladesh? No reason for tension.” The things are not like this. So, how it would be?

Firstly, there’re discussions. There such discussions can be divided into two parts. One is diplomatic bilateral talks, where Biden has a delegation and the US Secretary of State will be included. Again, India also has a delegation, where the Indian Foreign Minister will be included. Both countries will have National Security Advisers. Many times one-to-one meetings are held. That is, both present there. No third person present there. And anyway, there must be an interpreter who will translate from Hindi to English. And after this bilateral discussion, the next level of discussion begins. Sometimes it is for doing homework beforehand. And many times it continues to happen even after the bilateral meeting. Sometimes it happens in India, sometimes in America.

To give an example, suppose US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan came to Delhi before Modi went to meet Biden. Ajit Doval had a meeting with Jack Sullivan, which is not at the level of the Prime Minister or the Head of the State, but it can be said at the level of NS, where Ajit Doval said that America should not do anything with Bangladesh, so that the sovereign interests of India are the interests of Bangladesh. In addition to this, there should be no such thing, that while hurting Bangladesh, India is also not injured. Why is India raising Bangladesh? As much as it is in the interest of Bangladesh, the sovereign interest of India is also involved. When Ajit Doval also says this, he will say that you will not accept any policy even in relation to India's neighboring countries in this subcontinent, which hurts India's sovereign interests. We call it, Understood Diplomacy. That is to understand. Diplomacy doesn't need to speak with plain language like a tea shop. In other words, body language is important in diplomacy, as well as there are different types of signals etc.

There has been a lot of discussion on Narendra Modi's US visit this year. How has the issue of Bangladesh become important? That is because before Narendra Modi left, the US State Department was told that if he talks about Bangladesh or other neighboring countries, they will not discourage him. That is, they will not prevent it. There will be no restrictions. Modi is not only the captain of G20, he is also a great statesman of this subcontinent. There is an axial complexity and conflict between China and India. So it is natural to discuss the countries with which India's sovereign interests are connected. If China is breathing dragon's breath into Myanmar today, if India is having trouble with Myanmar-China relations and the Rohingya issue is causing India discomfort, then there is no reason not to inform the US about it, because the United States is also a very important country in the first world, with which China has a direct conflict. So this discussion is held for geostrategic reasons.

Again and again I say, at the level of the Head of the State, these are not always discussed so openly, so clearly. Yes, if it is a one-to-one meeting and when there is a retreat. That is, when there is no record, there is open discussion.

As we know, America's problem with Narendra Modi was not unnoticeable because of the Godhra incident. Narendra Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat then. America blacklisted him and did not give him visa. Then after becoming the Prime Minister in 2014, America was forced to give him a visa. However, the state visit never happened and it was always titled as working visit or official visit etc. But this is the first state visit. Biden also doesn't do a lot of state visits. Once before in the case of Korea he did and the President of France did.

This state visit of Narendra Modi has become very important. That's because America needs India especially and Biden has taken care of India for the sake of America. If the whole tour is analyzed, it will be seen that Narendra Modi has been given a little special importance. Cooperation has been assured in everything from semiconductor supply to drones. The G20 summit will be held in September. Since India is the main captain, all the leaders will come back to India. But in view of the war in Ukraine, European and American countries want Narendra Modi as a mediator. Narendra Modi also had a meeting with the President of Ukraine in Hiroshima, Japan. He has managed to maintain friendship with America and NATO members despite keeping his relations with Russia intact. It is a success of his diplomacy. Instead, he is protecting his own dignity by negotiating with the United States. Narendra Modi also said this at the joint press conference at the White House after the meeting with Biden.

Let me say one thing here, in fact, surrender does not lead to a good relationship. When Bangladesh was formed in 1971, what was America's position and since then how has Bangladesh fought with America to protect its own sovereign interests. For the declared policy of Mujibur Rahman, the complexity of Nixon-Indira and India's relations after that declared policy and later after the formation of a sovereign state in Bangladesh by 1971 war, America also had to accept the existence of that sovereign state. That fight is still going on today. This time too, Narendra Modi has managed to gain enough assurance for Bangladesh by fighting this battle during his visit to the US.

The financial crisis in the United States is now at its peak. Three banks have closed there. America has been indebted financially. Biden has to face Congress. Parliament has to discuss the way out of that debt relief. The opposition, however, supported Biden in this regard. Parliament has found a path to debt relief. In this situation, China is a big threat. It is wise for America to have India with it to face China. That is why the cover article of this year's The Economist is that America's best friend is now India. No matter how much India dislikes America, India is America's best friend. It's the subject of cover articles in magazines like The Economist.

One thing must be remembered here, this time the US State Department has given two information about the role of the United States in this region including Bangladesh. First, in detail the US will not hesitate to play a role in its interests. And secondly, when the interests are related to the region, India is a partner of the US there. In response to a question about Bangladesh at the briefing of the US State Department in Washington DC, the chief deputy spokesperson of the State Department Vedant Patel said this information. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met and had dinner with US President Joe Biden. He gave a speech. The role of India and Bangladesh was also questioned at the briefing in Washington last Tuesday around the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States. A journalist wants to know whether India is with the initiative of the United States for free and fair elections in Bangladesh. In response, the Biden administration said the United States speaks from its position. And India talks on the basis of India's bilateral relations with Bangladesh. The US has given India an opportunity to speak about Bangladesh. The recent talks between the US and India on Bangladesh at the Foreign Office briefing on Wednesday brought up the overall security risk, including the smuggling of 10 truckloads of weapons for the Indian separatist group ULFA in Assam during BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia's regime.

At the briefing, a journalist drew the attention of the US State Department and said that Narendra Modi has already reached Washington. Prior to this visit, US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan held a meeting with India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. In that meeting, Ajit Doval said that other countries should refrain from taking any initiative that undermines India's national conditions in India's neighboring countries. This is important for India.

The journalist drew the attention of the US State Department and said that a top Indian daily newspaper quoted India's National Security Advisor as saying that the United States should not do anything harmful to the balance and stability of the Southeast Asian region. For example, during Khaleda Zia's rule in Bangladesh, 10 trucks of military weapons were being smuggled to Assam's terrorist group ULFA. This is the key to safety. The journalist wants to know the reaction of the US State Department, which hopes that these issues, especially the stability and balance of the Southeast Asian region, should not become a problem. In response, US State Department Chief Deputy Spokesperson Vedanta Patel did not rule out the issue of Bangladesh coming up in discussions between India and US security advisers. Again the topic of Bangladesh came up - he did not say that directly. Vedanta Patel said I will say two things, first in details the US will not hesitate to play a role in its interests and in the field. As I said earlier, we work in cooperation with our Indian partners to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. We face global challenges together. We look forward to strengthening ties with our Indian partners to work towards building an open, prosperous, secure, stable and resilient Southeast Asia, including the Indo-Pacific region and the world.

America has officially announced that it is ready to work with partners like India. It is clear that India has also discussed the issue of Bangladesh. Elections in Bangladesh are coming in January 2024 and India's election in May 2024. Before that, it is expected that more discussions will be proceeded to untangle the complexities of these issues. When the G20 summit will be held in Delhi, Sheikh Hasina will also come to Delhi as a special invited member. Then there will be Biden and other statesmen. Sheikh Hasina is supposed to have a bilateral meeting with Modi in India at that time. So all in all we are optimistic, the future journey will be clearer in the coming days.

 (The writer is Special Correspondent of The Daily Kaler Kantho in New Delhi)

 

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