The failed assassination attempt on former US President and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump over the weekend could well be the gamechanger of the 2024 US presidential polls. The picture of Trump with an injured ear, blood streaming down his face but resilient and in fighting spirit — punching the air with a clenched fist — is expected to become the defining image of US politics for some time to come.

It presents a stark foil to the image of incumbent President Joe Biden, who is facing ever louder calls to step down from the presidential race given the uncertainties over his age and health. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to “strongly condemn” the assassination bid. “Deeply concerned by the attack on my friend, former President Donald Trump. Violence has no place in politics and democracies. Wish him speedy recovery. Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the deceased, those injured and the American people,” the PM posted on X.

Former presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama too repudiated the bid on Trump’s life. But it is unclear whether the condemnation of the attack from both sides of the aisle will bridge the schism in US politics. Indeed, the polarisation is so strong that the attack could well exacerbate tensions in US society. What triggered the attack is unclear. But it comes against the backdrop of Trump painting himself as a victim of those Democrats whose stated aim was to ensure that Trump be stopped from winning the November polls at all costs.

Trump himself had never lost an opportunity to accuse the Democrats of trying to embroil him in fake cases and charges, aimed at hobbling his chances to secure the presidency. So, Trump is certain to gather the sympathy vote — if the Pennsylvania crowd’s cheers are anything to go by, his supporters and others will close ranks behind him; he could also bag the votes of those uncertain voters, who were backing other Republican candidates opposed to Trump and did not completely endorse him.

Ironically, the assassination bid takes the national and media glare away from Biden and puts it squarely on Trump. It could mean that Biden stays on as Trump’s challenger boosting the former president’s chances of securing the White House for the Republicans. From all accounts, the mood in the Republican party is upbeat; the party is viewing this as a development of immense political consequence. The Republican National Convention, that begins this week in Wisconsin, will endorse Trump as their candidate.

In India, decision and policymakers will no doubt be carefully watching the situation as it evolves, having invested deeply in this relationship for many years. And over these years, New Delhi has struck a balance — maintaining relationships with politicians on both sides of the political divide. Any political instability in the US can only mean bad news for the world that has hardly recovered from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and is roiled by the impact of two conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. That goes for India too.

Writer: Former Foreign Secretary and High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh.